New warnings over soaring diesel prices and potential global supply disruption have raised further questions about plans that could leave the proposed MOD Bicester Site A development dependent on generators for its electricity supply.
Earlier this month, Wrong Plan. Wrong Site. highlighted concerns over the potential reliance on generators at the proposed asylum accommodation site near Piddington. The Home Office’s own Utilities and Infrastructure Assessment estimates that the proposed development could have a maximum electrical demand of approximately 2.16 MVA.
Crucially, the same document states that the capacity and condition of the existing electricity infrastructure have not yet been established. Because of that uncertainty, the Government’s current proposal assumes that the existing supply cannot be relied upon, with temporary and/or permanent generators incorporated into the plans.
That was concerning when the plans were drawn up. Developments in the global diesel market now make the issue even more significant.
Diesel prices have risen sharply
Official UK Government figures show just how quickly the cost of diesel has changed during 2026. The average UK diesel price was 141.26p per litre on 26 January. By 14 September, it had risen to 190.72p per litre – an increase of around 35% in less than eight months.
Government figures also recorded particularly sharp increases over the summer, with diesel prices rising by 16.9p per litre between July and August alone.
For most households, higher diesel prices are painful. For a development potentially requiring substantial quantities of fuel simply to keep its electricity running, they could become a much more serious operational issue.
A global diesel market under pressure
The Telegraph reported on Sunday that the international diesel market is experiencing extraordinary disruption.
According to the newspaper, European wholesale diesel prices have risen 115% since the conflict in Iran began at the end of February, while Argus Media estimates that around one fifth of global diesel shipments have disappeared from the market following disruption affecting Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia.
The report also highlights Britain’s particular exposure to international disruption. The UK now imports a much larger proportion of its diesel than it once did. Fuels Industry UK told The Telegraph that imports accounted for 54% of UK diesel consumption last year, compared with 14% in 2003, following a long-term reduction in domestic refining capacity.
There is also uncertainty over what happens next. The Telegraph reports that senior US politicians have discussed restricting American diesel exports. One oil-market analyst quoted by the newspaper warned that such a move could cause another substantial international price shock. The US currently accounts for around 1.4 million barrels of diesel exports each day.
That does not mean a shortage in Britain is inevitable. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told The Telegraph that the Government is monitoring supplies and said the public should not be alarmed.
But the possibility of further disruption illustrates an important question for MOD Bicester:
Why is a development intended to accommodate up to 1,256 people being progressed before a secure, permanent electricity supply has been established?
Potentially thousands of pounds a day
We previously examined what the Home Office’s estimated electricity requirement could mean if substantial generator power were required. Using the Government’s estimated demand and standard generator fuel-consumption assumptions, our calculations indicated potential diesel costs of around £10,752 per day at a typical operating load, potentially rising to approximately £19,488 per day at loads approaching maximum demand.
Those figures were estimates rather than a prediction of actual expenditure. Actual costs would depend on electricity demand, generator efficiency, how much power ultimately comes from the grid and the commercial price paid for fuel.
But the rapidly changing diesel market reinforces the underlying point: any development dependent on generators is exposed to a fuel whose price can change dramatically because of events thousands of miles away.
Our previous analysis is available here: MOD Bicester Site A could cost thousands a day to power with diesel.
What happens if diesel becomes scarce?
Cost is only one question. Diesel is essential to haulage, agriculture, construction, public transport, emergency services and many other parts of the economy. Industry groups are already discussing what could happen if international disruption leads not merely to higher prices but to physical supply constraints. The Confederation of Passenger Transport has called for essential bus and coach services to be prioritised in the event of shortages.
That raises an obvious resilience question for a site housing more than 1,250 people.
If generators became an important part of MOD Bicester’s electricity supply, what contingency arrangements would exist during a serious fuel shortage, and where would the site sit among competing demands for diesel?
The publicly available infrastructure assessment does not resolve that question. Instead, it records that the existing electrical network’s capacity has not yet been verified and assumes generator provision because the existing infrastructure cannot currently be relied upon.
A ten-year development needs resilient infrastructure
The Government is seeking permission for MOD Bicester Site A to accommodate up to 1,256 people, with the wider proposal including modular accommodation, health and welfare facilities and supporting infrastructure.
Wrong Plan. Wrong Site. believes basic infrastructure questions of this scale should be resolved before a development proceeds – not afterwards.
Electricity is not an optional service.
A development housing more than a thousand people needs a power supply that is dependable, affordable and resilient over the long term.
The extraordinary movement in diesel markets during 2026 demonstrates the risks that come with relying on generators as anything more than short-term emergency backup.
With international supply chains under pressure, diesel prices already substantially higher than they were at the beginning of the year, and the possibility of further disruption being openly discussed, the case for establishing a secure permanent electricity supply at MOD Bicester has become more important, not less.
The Home Office’s own assessment acknowledges that it does not yet know whether the existing electrical infrastructure can meet the site’s requirements.
Before this development progresses, residents deserve to know what will power it, what that will cost, and what happens if the diesel it depends upon becomes significantly more expensive – or harder to obtain.
